“Hu”

 

 

“Past and Present of Iran’s Nuclear Talks with the West”

 

Professor Seyed G Safavi

 

Director of London Academy of Iranian studies

philosophy@iranianstudies.org

 

02 March 2006 at “Defense & Security Forum (DSF)”, London

 

Iran History, Economy & System Structure at a glance :

 

Iran, also called Persia, with seven thousand years history of civilization, is a Middle Eastern country located in Southwest Asia. She shares borders with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to the north, Pakistan and Afghanistan to the east, and Turkey and Iraq to the west. In addition, she borders the Persian Gulf across which lie Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The official name of the country is the Islamic Republic of Iran and Shi'a Islam is the official state religion. Iran has area of 1,648,000 km2 and Population of 70,000,000.

 

Throughout history Iran has been of great geo-strategic importance due to its position between the Middle East, Caucasia, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf along with its proximity to Eastern Europe and the Indian subcontinent.

 

Persia was one of two super power of the ancient world. Iran was attacked in last two centuries on four occasions, by foreign countries; Two times by Russia, one time by western countries during second word war and last time by Iraq (1980-1988) with support of western countries. However, during this period, Iran has never initiated attacked on other countries. In other words, Iran has a defensive military strategy and not an aggressive one.

 

Iran has a long history of art, music, architecture, poetry, philosophy, traditions, and spirituality. Many Iranians believe their culture to be the one and only reason why their civilization has continuously survived thousands of years of turmoil.

 

Iran is an Islamic Republic, whose political system is laid out in the 1979 constitution.  Iran is lead by The Supreme Leader and the organizations managing the country  are the faculty of administration (government),  the Parliament (The Majles), the Judiciary, Supreme National Security Council, the Assembly of Experts,  the Council of Guardians , the Expediency Council , and military organizations; army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).

 

 

Iran's economy is a mixture of central planning, state ownership of oil and other large enterprises, agriculture, and small-scale private trading and service ventures. The current administration has continued to follow the market reform plans of the previous one and has indicated that it will pursue diversification of Iran's oil-reliant economy. The Iranian government is attempting to expand its investing revenues in other areas, including car manufacturing, aerospace industries, consumer electronics, petrochemicals and nuclear technology. Iran is also hoping to attract billions of dollars worth of foreign investment by creating a more favorable investment climate, such as reduced restrictions and duties on imports and the creation of free-trade zones like in Chabahar and the island of Kish.

 

Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer and holds 10% of the World's proven oil reserves. She also has the World's second largest natural gas reserves (after Russia). The following is a brief list of some of Iran’s products:

 

Crude oil production: 3,625,000 bbls a day.

 

Minerals: Iron ore, coal, zinc, lead, copper, bauxite, manganese, chromites, salt, bauxite, decorative stone,

 

Forestry: Approximately 11% of Iran is forested, much of it in the Caspian region.

 

State investment has boosted agriculture with the liberalization of production and the improvement of packaging and marketing, helping to develop new export markets. Large-scale irrigation schemes, together with the wider production of export-based agricultural items such as dates, flowers and pistachios, produced the fastest economic growth of any sector in Iran in the 90s. Agriculture remains one of the largest employers. Iran has also developed a biotechnology, nanotechnology and pharmaceuticals industry.

 

Iran's major commercial partners are France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea. Since the late 90s, Iran has increased its economic cooperation with other developing countries, such as Syria, India, Cuba, Venezuela and South Africa. Iran is also expanding her trade ties with Turkey and Pakistan, and shares the common vision for the creation of a single economic market in West and Central Asia, with her partners. Iran’s GDP per head (PPP$) is 5,766.

 

Iran’s Nuclear Talks:

 

Over the past quarter century, Iran has served as a hot potato for the US. After invading Afghanistan and Iraq, the US set in motion various strategies to counter Iran, one of which was depicting Iran as a nuclear threat jeopardizing the entire globe.

 

Doubts on Iran’s nuclear activities and objectives prompted the West to exert political pressure on Iran starting in 2003. This measure went in force on the basis of reports submitted to the US by the anti-Iran terrorist group Mujahideen Khalq Organization (MKO).

 

From then on, the US mounted political and legal pressure on Iran. Given Iran’s lackluster media coverage of the events, world public opinion was swayed by the US militarist policies, so much so that the US now has the political initiative.

 

The US harbors the following objectives behind depicting Iran as a nuclear threat:

 

  1. engulfing Iran in a sensitive international dispute
  2. turning Iran passive toward vital regional issues, such as those involving Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon
  3. making Iran submissive toward Western demands
  4. assessing Iran’s reactions toward political and legal pressure exerted by the West to come up with a future action plan
  5. forming a global consensus against Iran, in case it does not yield (to US pressure)
  6. creating tension in Europe-Iran relations
  7. uniting with Europe to slap economic bans on Iran
  8. preparing the ground for limited and localized military action against Iran

 

Once these objectives were made public in 2003, Iran declared that its nuclear activities were for entirely peaceful purposes and that it had no plans to produce nuclear weapons. To counter the US strategy, Iran devised the following measures:

 

 

  1. avoiding military confrontation
  2. opting for diplomacy
  3. making its nuclear activities transparent
  4. building trust in the international community
  5. embarking on détente

 

Four Advantages:

 

In tune with the aforementioned strategy, Iran granted four basic concessions to the West without getting any concessions in return:

 

  1. volunteering to be a signatory of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) annex protocol, while legally not compelled to do so
  2. allowing rigorous and unannounced inspection of all Iranian sites
  3. volunteering to give Iran’s classified nuclear information to the West
  4. postponing uranium enrichment, while as an NPT member, Iran has the inalienable right to possess the uranium enrichment technology.

 

Article 4 of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) allows all countries to utilize any needed technology to make non-military use of atomic energy, such as generating electricity, and to enrich uranium and produce plutonium.

 

 

During two years of inspections, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors have found no evidence of Iran producing nuclear weapons. This has time and again been corroborated by the IAEA director El-Baradei; nonetheless, Iran’s nuclear case is still open, and, while getting huge concessions from Iran, the West has not given any palpable concessions in return. Then after reformist government, Iran new conservative government looks at new approach to diplomatic nuclear talks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran’s present Nuclear Talks with the West

 

 

 

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (INSC) decides and governs Iran’s nuclear negotiations. Secretary of INSC is Dr Ali Larijani, who is very close to Supreme Leader of Iran. Members of the INSC are President, Head of Judiciary, Parliament’s Spokesman, Chief Commander of IRGC, ministers of defense, intelligence, foreign affairs, interior, two representative of Supreme Leader, and chief staff of military forces.

 

 

At present, there are 3 opinions on nuclear policies in Iran:

 

1. The Reformists contend that Iran’s foreign policy should move from a security-ideological dialog to a cultural-economic one. They hold that the military mindset should not permeate Iran’s foreign policy dialogs. In actuality, Iran has not made dramatic advances in the area of peaceful nuclear technology. The current hullabaloo over Iran’s nuclear might has been set in motion by the domestic, American, and Israeli conservatives for their own vested interests. To safeguard its long term interests, Iran should come to terms with the West in regard to the nuclear issue and show the needed flexibility, since Iran is not – and should not be – a nuclear power.

They are ,currently, isolated from the power .

 

2. The Pragmatists who are the technocrats and executives hold that détente is on the right track but should be promoted to a fructifying diplomacy. They opt for suspending or halting uranium enrichment, if it allows Iran to get considerable concessions from the US and Europe, insures Iran’s national security in beneficial political negotiations, and turns Iran into the crossroads of peace and security in the Middle East and Central Asia.

 

3. The New-Conservatives (Usol gerian) base the foreign policy on the values cherished by the Islamic Revolution of Iran, crystallized in “rejecting bullies and bullying”. They currently control Iran’s power.

 

They believe that US, Israel, and Europe are essentially making bullying demands that run contrary to international laws and to Iran’s legal rights as an NPT signatory. Citing what they call “Iran’s non-transparent objectives”, the West has established a bullying system that runs counter to international laws and legal commitments. The West overtly says that some countries, including Iran, should be deprived of access to certain technologies. This is tantamount to trampling on the national sovereignty of these countries, the group notes and believes that Iran should vehemently stand against all such pressures.

 

The group, moreover, opposes any political negotiation with the West over uranium enrichment, yet it favors constructive dialogs in a bid to build trust, provided that these dialogs have specific time frames. If the West finds no evidence of Iran’s non peaceful nuclear objectives before the deadline, Iran should be allowed to pursue uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes in tandem with its nuclear rights.

 

In case Europe tries to buy time in the negotiations, Iran should resume uranium enrichment, while in case of increased Western pressure; Iran should withdraw from the annex protocol.

 

In the event that Iran’s nuclear case will refer to the UN Security Council, and they start sanction against Iran, Tehran should withdraw from the NPT and simultaneously build up its defense and economic powers.

 

New Strategy of Iran’s Nuclear talks

 

Iran’s present diplomatic nuclear talks based on the following principles:

 

1-     Subject of nuclear talks is transparency of Iran activity, but not giving up of Iran’s rights.

2-      Both sides ought to attempt to build trust, rather than this being a one-sided effort by the Iranians.

3-     Iran is ready to talk with international community, including USA, as catalysis.

4-     Enrichment of uranium for civil nuclear technology is an absolute right in Iran’s view.

5-     Iran emphasises again that nuclear technology of Iran is just for civil and peaceful purposes.

6- Diplomatic solution is the best way for both sides. Sanctions or military attack are not effective on Iran. If the US or Tel Aviv regime attacks to Iran, Iran will immediately retaliate, by attacking them in Iraq, Israel and Afghanistan.

7- It is unwise to under-estimate Iran and classes her with the likes of Iraq and Libya. Iran has 1 million soldiers, 11 million militants (basiji) and a population of 70 million, with an area of 1.648,000 km2; she is also one of the world main producers of oil and gas.

 

 

 

 

Iran’s new offers:

 

1-     Establishment of an international consortium in Iran for nuclear technology. Iran international shareholders may monitor Iran nuclear activity, thereby, assuring themselves that Iran’s nuclear activities are only for civil purposes.

 

2-      US has to cancel sanction against Iran. In return, Iran shall postpone industrial enrichment of uranium for one year as a part of building trust from both sides. However, scientific research will continue during this period. Iran will give a reply to IAEA pre-determined questions.

 

 

 

 

Conclusion

 

The new homogonous system in Iran and nuclear file will be best opportunity for the West and Iran to restart new relationship based on common interests and security. 

Interaction, stability, or confrontation between the West and Iran will, undoubtedly, enter a new phase in the near future.